It's All Over
Last December, when it looked as if Howard Dean would win the Democratic nomination going away and the Kerry campaign seemed as if it were destined for the ash-heap, I confidently predicted that Bush would win reelection by a comfortable margin (3-5 percent), though probably not in a landslide. My thinking was that the former Vermont governor was (or at least seemed) too left wing and dovish, and the Bush Administration too politically adept, for the Democrat to win, even with a weak economy and a difficult situation in Iraq (which, I'll be honest, I thought would be better by now).
Even as Dean imploded and the people of Iowa inexplicably decided that John Kerry was the most electable Democrat, I remained basically firm in my prediction. I'd obviously underestimated John Kerry before the primaries, but I figured that, like Dean, Kerry couldn't keep pace with Bush in the long run. He was too stiff, too aristocratic, too personally unlikeable. His policy positions were too confused; his record was full of opportunistic flip-flops, and when he did seem to be acting principle he showed himself to be, even more than Dean, a doctrinaire left-wing dove. I knew that he was tied with Bush, or a little ahead, but, like many, I attributed that to months of positive press for Kerry during a confusingly positive Democratic primary season, and I assumed it would fade as the press, and the Bush Administration, turned their attention to Kerry, his record, and his positions.
When that didn't happen, I will admit I began to get nervous. Iraq continued to fester. The economy grew, but at a tepid rate. The race remained effectively a statistical tie, but with Kerry starting to take a small-but-meaningful lead in the swing states. I wanted to panic, but I decided to stick with my original prediction, against my instincts. Too many times I'd seen the Bush Administration look dead in the water, look like it's opponents had all the momentum, only to turn things around at the last minute and come out on top. (see Congressional authorization of the Iraq war, see the UN resolution on Iraq, see creating the Department of Homeland Security) I figured Rove & Co. had enough of the old Bush magic left to win, and that I'd feel pretty silly in November for panicking in July.
Anyway, the point of all this is that I'm glad I didn't panic back in July because it's only the first week of September and, let's be honest, this race is all over. Barring some major Bush screw-up, the President is going to be reelected. Not in a landslide as recent polls have suggested, but by the comfortable three to five point margin I predicted back in December (which of course translates to a sizeable Electoral College victory).
In the interests of bringing you tomorrow's postmortem today!, here's my abbreviated "Why Kerry Lost" explanation, Laphamized: John Kerry lost because he's an arrogant asshole, entirely unlikeable, who accomplished virtually nothing in his twenty years in the Senate and who thought he could capture the presidency based on his opponent's unpopularity and his own status as a decorated Viet Nam veteran, never thinking that he would be harmed by a dovish voting record or by the fact that many of those who served with him in Southeast Asia passionately despise him and don't think him any kind of hero.
OK, that's not that abbreviated. But with John "Nuance" Kerry, nothing is ever simple.
Even as Dean imploded and the people of Iowa inexplicably decided that John Kerry was the most electable Democrat, I remained basically firm in my prediction. I'd obviously underestimated John Kerry before the primaries, but I figured that, like Dean, Kerry couldn't keep pace with Bush in the long run. He was too stiff, too aristocratic, too personally unlikeable. His policy positions were too confused; his record was full of opportunistic flip-flops, and when he did seem to be acting principle he showed himself to be, even more than Dean, a doctrinaire left-wing dove. I knew that he was tied with Bush, or a little ahead, but, like many, I attributed that to months of positive press for Kerry during a confusingly positive Democratic primary season, and I assumed it would fade as the press, and the Bush Administration, turned their attention to Kerry, his record, and his positions.
When that didn't happen, I will admit I began to get nervous. Iraq continued to fester. The economy grew, but at a tepid rate. The race remained effectively a statistical tie, but with Kerry starting to take a small-but-meaningful lead in the swing states. I wanted to panic, but I decided to stick with my original prediction, against my instincts. Too many times I'd seen the Bush Administration look dead in the water, look like it's opponents had all the momentum, only to turn things around at the last minute and come out on top. (see Congressional authorization of the Iraq war, see the UN resolution on Iraq, see creating the Department of Homeland Security) I figured Rove & Co. had enough of the old Bush magic left to win, and that I'd feel pretty silly in November for panicking in July.
Anyway, the point of all this is that I'm glad I didn't panic back in July because it's only the first week of September and, let's be honest, this race is all over. Barring some major Bush screw-up, the President is going to be reelected. Not in a landslide as recent polls have suggested, but by the comfortable three to five point margin I predicted back in December (which of course translates to a sizeable Electoral College victory).
In the interests of bringing you tomorrow's postmortem today!, here's my abbreviated "Why Kerry Lost" explanation, Laphamized: John Kerry lost because he's an arrogant asshole, entirely unlikeable, who accomplished virtually nothing in his twenty years in the Senate and who thought he could capture the presidency based on his opponent's unpopularity and his own status as a decorated Viet Nam veteran, never thinking that he would be harmed by a dovish voting record or by the fact that many of those who served with him in Southeast Asia passionately despise him and don't think him any kind of hero.
OK, that's not that abbreviated. But with John "Nuance" Kerry, nothing is ever simple.
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