At the End of the Day, It's a Game of Chance
I won $150 playing Texas hold 'em last night. Not a bad night's work. A weird quirk from the game: two times one of the players drew pocket aces; both times that player lost. Simply astonishing. Just goes to show that, though skill is important, poker is, at the end of the day, a game of chance. It helps to be lucky.
I was the beneficiary of one of those losing pocket aces hands. Four players left; I was short-stacked, but not dangerously so. I drew king-queen of clubs, and tried to buy the blinds, which at this point in the night were fairly sizeable, by putting in $50, most of my chips. I got called, which put me pretty seriously up the creek; I had most of my money in the pot with pocket-nothing and, though I didn't know it, I was facing down the aforementioned pocket aces. The flop was ace, ten, and a garbage club (maybe a seven). The other player, now holding trips aces, tries to push me all-in, hoping to force a fold. Considering only the cards, that would have been the right move. But I had the totality of the circumstances to consider. At that point, I had a straight draw and a flush draw. The bulk of my chips were already in the pot. If I folded, I'd have cut myself off at the knees; I'd be massively short-stacked with only four players at the table. I couldn't realistically come back from that, so all I'd be doing if I folded was hanging around, frittering away my chips on blinds. Plus it was 3:00 am, and I was exhausted and still a little sick. So I figured I'd make my stand there. I went all-in.
The other player throws down her pocket aces, in shock that I've called. She figures she's won, and starts criticizing my play. Wait a minute, I says I says, the game ain't over. If I draw a jack or running clubs, I win. Yeah, right, she says, noting that the odds overwhelmingly favor her.
So naturally I pull a jack on the turn, and win the hand. I pull way into the chip lead, and ride that advantage to the win (many, many hours later).
As I said, at its heart it's a game of chance. That's why the amateurs in the World Series of Poker have such an advantage over the pros: they've got strength-in-numbers. Any individual pro is far, far better than any individual amateur. But when there are 100 pros and 2400 amateurs, the amateurs are going to get so many more hands than the pros, and in turn get many more good hands. That, combined with the pros' dismissive attitude toward the amateurs, gives them a decided edge. It's going to be many a year before one of the pros wins the World Series main event again.
I was the beneficiary of one of those losing pocket aces hands. Four players left; I was short-stacked, but not dangerously so. I drew king-queen of clubs, and tried to buy the blinds, which at this point in the night were fairly sizeable, by putting in $50, most of my chips. I got called, which put me pretty seriously up the creek; I had most of my money in the pot with pocket-nothing and, though I didn't know it, I was facing down the aforementioned pocket aces. The flop was ace, ten, and a garbage club (maybe a seven). The other player, now holding trips aces, tries to push me all-in, hoping to force a fold. Considering only the cards, that would have been the right move. But I had the totality of the circumstances to consider. At that point, I had a straight draw and a flush draw. The bulk of my chips were already in the pot. If I folded, I'd have cut myself off at the knees; I'd be massively short-stacked with only four players at the table. I couldn't realistically come back from that, so all I'd be doing if I folded was hanging around, frittering away my chips on blinds. Plus it was 3:00 am, and I was exhausted and still a little sick. So I figured I'd make my stand there. I went all-in.
The other player throws down her pocket aces, in shock that I've called. She figures she's won, and starts criticizing my play. Wait a minute, I says I says, the game ain't over. If I draw a jack or running clubs, I win. Yeah, right, she says, noting that the odds overwhelmingly favor her.
So naturally I pull a jack on the turn, and win the hand. I pull way into the chip lead, and ride that advantage to the win (many, many hours later).
As I said, at its heart it's a game of chance. That's why the amateurs in the World Series of Poker have such an advantage over the pros: they've got strength-in-numbers. Any individual pro is far, far better than any individual amateur. But when there are 100 pros and 2400 amateurs, the amateurs are going to get so many more hands than the pros, and in turn get many more good hands. That, combined with the pros' dismissive attitude toward the amateurs, gives them a decided edge. It's going to be many a year before one of the pros wins the World Series main event again.
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